Population Projections

Population projections show the evolution that Spain's population would follow if current demographic trends were maintained. They do not constitute a prediction, in the sense that they do not aim to determine what is the most likely evolution.

In this new edition of the projections, a consultation in the form of a survey was conducted with demographers throughout Spain in order to establish hypotheses for future behaviour of demographic parameters.

According to the projections published today, in the next 15 years Spain could gain 5,137,447 inhabitants (10.6%), exceeding 53.7 million people in 2039.

In the year 2074, the population would reach 54.6 million, with an increase of 5.98 million people.

The progressive increase in deaths, higher than the number of births, would give rise to a negative natural increase during the entire projected period. This negative natural balance would be exceeded by the positive migratory balance in most of the years of the projective period, which would cause, on balance, an increase in population. This increase would therefore be due exclusively to international migration.

For its part, the population born in Spain would gradually decrease and would go from the current 81.9% of the total to 61.0% within 50 years.

The number of births would begin to slightly increase in 2024 and continue to grow until 2042. Between 2024 and 2038, around 5.5 million children would be born, 8.7% less than in the previous 15 years.

However, starting in 2058, births could begin to increase again, due to the arrival of increasingly larger generations at the ages of greatest fertility. Despite this, births will always be below deaths.

The number of births is projected assuming that women's fertility maintains a slight but progressive upward trend. Thus, the average number of children per woman would be 1.24 in 2038, compared to 1.16 in 2022.

Life expectancy at birth would reach 86.0 years for men and 90.0 years for women in 2073, with a gain of 5.6 and 4.3 years, respectively, compared to current values.

For its part, life expectancy for people aged 65 in 2073 would be 22.7 years for men (3.6 more than at present) and 26.3 for women (3.3 more years).

Despite the longer life expectancy, the number of deaths would continue to grow, reaching a peak in 2065.

Given the decline in the birth rate and the increase in deaths, in Spain there will always be more deaths than births (growth or negative natural balance) during the next 15 years. This natural balance would reach its lowest value around 2061, and would recover slightly thereafter.

Spain registered 1,258,894 immigrations in 2022, while 531,889 people left our country to reside abroad. The migration balance was 727,005 people, the highest in 10 years.

A similar migratory balance is projected in 2024 and decreasing from that year on, with more intensity in the first years, although always positive. This results in a net population gain due to migration of 3.5 million people in the first five projected years and 7.0 million until 2038. In the entire projective period, until 2073, it would be 17.1 million people.

The population between 20 and 64 years of age, which currently accounts for 60.9% of the total, would represent 53.7 in 2051. It will partially recover in 2074, to 54.2%.

The percentage of the population aged 65 and over, which currently stands at 20.4% of the total, would reach a maximum of 30.5% around 2055. In 2074, this percentage would stand at 30.3%.

On the other hand, and if current trends were to continue, the dependency ratio (quotient, as a percentage, between the population aged under 16 or over 64 and the population aged 16 to 64) would also reach a maximum around 2052 (75.3%), and will gradually decrease thereafter, to 73.9% in 2074.

If current demographic trends are maintained, distinct evolutions will be observed over the next 15 years by autonomous community.

There would thus be population increases in 13 and decreases in four. The largest increases in relative terms would be recorded in Illes Baleares (19.0%), Comunitat Valenciana (19.0%) and Región de Murcia (17.2%). On the contrary, the most significant decreases would be recorded in Principado de Asturias (-4.1%), Extremadura (-3.4%) and Castilla y León (-0.7%). 

This analysis is intended to help better interpret the true meaning of projections, which is not to predict the future, but to simulate what would happen under certain conditions that reflect the current demographic situation.

By combining the different scenarios of both fertility and migration balance, it can be seen how the population in the next 50 years would range between 44,813,632 inhabitants in the lowest scenario and 65,051,447 in the highest scenario.

Furthermore, a special scenario has been established in which the migration balance would be zero for the entire projective period, which would produce a population of 32 million people.

The data published today update the 2022-2072 population projections, the results of which are no longer representative. All results of this operation are available on INEBase.