- Methods and Projects
- Standards and Classifications
Standardised Methodological Report
Population Projections
- 1Contact
- 1.1Contact organisation
National Statistics Institute of Spain
- 1.5Contact mail address
Avenida de Manoteras 50-52 - 28050 Madrid
- 1.1Contact organisation
- 2Metadata update
- 2.1Metadata last certified
20/06/2024
- 2.2Metadata last posted
22/09/2020
- 2.3Metadata last update
20/06/2024
- 2.1Metadata last certified
- 3Statistical presentation
- 3.1Data description
The Population Projections of Spain, compiled by the INE, constitute a statistical simulation of the demographic size and structure of the population that would reside in Spain in the next 50 years, and in its Autonomous Communities and provinces in the next 15 years, in case the currently observed demographic tendencies and behaviours were maintained.
These results show the effect in the near future of the recently observed evolution of fertility, mortality and migrations in each of these territories.
In addition, some alternative hypothesis on some of the demographic phenomena have been established, leading to different projection scenarios, only at national level, which show the sensitivity of the results when the projection hypothesis vary.
- 3.2Classification system
- Comunidades y Ciudades Autónomas
01 Andalucía
02 Aragón
03 Asturias, Principado de
04 Balears, Illes
05 Canarias
06 Cantabria
07 Castilla y León
08 Castilla - La Mancha
09 Cataluña
10 Comunitat Valenciana
11 Extremadura
12 Galicia
13 Madrid, Comunidad de
14 Murcia, Región de
15 Navarra, Comunidad Foral de
16 País Vasco
17 Rioja, La
18 Ceuta
19 Melilla - Provincias
02 Albacete
03 Alicante/Alacant
04 Almería
01 Araba/Álava
33 Asturias
05 Ávila
06 Badajoz
07 Balears, Illes
08 Barcelona
48 Bizkaia
09 Burgos
10 Cáceres
11 Cádiz
39 Cantabria
12 Castellón/Castelló
13 Ciudad Real
14 Córdoba
15 Coruña, A
16 Cuenca
20 Gipuzkoa
17 Girona
18 Granada
19 Guadalajara
21 Huelva
22 Huesca
23 Jaén
24 León
25 Lleida
27 Lugo
28 Madrid
29 Málaga
30 Murcia
31 Navarra
32 Ourense
34 Palencia
35 Palmas, Las
36 Pontevedra
26 Rioja, La
37 Salamanca
38 Santa Cruz de Tenerife
40 Segovia
41 Sevilla
42 Soria
43 Tarragona
44 Teruel
45 Toledo
46 Valencia/València
47 Valladolid
49 Zamora
50 Zaragoza
51 Ceuta
52 Melilla
- Comunidades y Ciudades Autónomas
- 3.3Sector coverage
Resident population in Spain.
- 3.4Statistical concepts and definitions
- Acquisition of citizenship
Action by which a person acquires the citizenship of a specific country, having previously been a citizen of another country, or stateless.
- Age
Age in years refers to the number of birthdays reached by the reference date, in other words, the age last birthday.
- Death
The statistical concept death used traditionally in Spain comprised the deaths of all persons that had lived for more than 24 hours. As of 1975, this concept has been broadened to include live births that die during the first 24 hours.
- Emigration
Action by which a person who, having previously been a usual resident in one territory, ceases to have usual residence therein for a period that is, or is expected to be, at least twelve months in duration.
- Foreign emigration
Emigration in which the new usual residence of the migrant is in a foreign country, with the prior usual residence in Spain.
- Foreign immigration
Immigration in which the prior usual residence of the migrant was in a foreign country.
- Immigration
Action by which a person establishes her/his usual residence in a territory for a period that is, or is expected to be, at least twelve months in duration, having previously been a usual resident of another territory.
- Inter-Autonomous Community emigration
Emigration with an origin in an Autonomous Community in which the next usual residence of the migrant is located in a Spanish municipality not belonging to said Autonomous Community.
- Inter-Autonomous Community immigration
Immigration to a destination in an Autonomous Community in which the prior usual residence of the migrant was located in a Spanish municipality not belonging to said Autonomous Community.
- Inter-provincial emigration
Emigration with an origin in a province in which the next usual residence of the migrant is located in a Spanish municipality not belonging to said province.
- Inter-provincial immigration
Immigration with a destination in a province in which the prior usual residence of the migrant was located in a Spanish municipality not belonging to said province.
- Migrant
Person who takes part in a migration (immigration or emigration).
- Newborn
A foetus will only be classified as born if it has a human-like appearance and lives for twenty-four hours completely outside the mother's womb
- Province ( Article 141.1 of the Spanish Constitution)
The province is a local institution with its own legal status, determined by grouping municipalities and dividing territories in order to fulfil State activities. Any alteration in the provincial limits is to be approved by the General Courts by means of constitutional law.
- Resident population
The population resident in a given geographical scope is defined as those persons who, on the reference date, have established their usual residence therein.
- Sex
Sex refers to the biological sex of the person. According to the WHO, "sex" refers to biological and physiological features defining to men and women, whereas "gender" refers to the roles, behaviour, activities and attributes constructed socially that a specific culture regards as appropriate for men and women. In accordance with this description, the WHO regards "man" and "woman" as sex categories, whereas "male" and "female" are gender categories.
- Usual residence
Place where a person normally spends rest periods, not taking into account temporary absences due to leisure trips, holidays, visits to family and friends, business, visiting friends or relatives or religious pilgrimages. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight that only usual residents in a region will be considered:
- Those who, according to the previous definition, would usually have lived therein for a continuous period of at least 12 months.
- Those who, according to the previous definition, would have established their usual residence therein less than 12 months ago, but with the intention of remaining therein for at least one year.
Where the above circumstances cannot be established, "usual residence" shall mean the place of registered residence.
- Acquisition of citizenship
- 3.5Statistical unit
Persons that reside in Spain
- 3.6Statistical population
Resident population in Spain, in each Autonomous Community and in each province.
- 3.7Reference area
This statistic covers the whole national territory. It is disseminated at national level in the long term (next 50 years), and for each of the autonomous communities and provinces in the short term (next 15 years).
- 3.8Time coverage
For the national total, resident population data are offered at 1 January for the 50 years following the year of compilation, as well as data regarding the demographic events in each one of those years.
For the Autonomous Communities and provinces, resident population data are offered at 1 January for the 15 years following the year of compilation, as well as data regarding the demographic events in each one of these years. - 3.9Base period
1 January of the year of compilation
- 3.1Data description
- 4Unit of measure
- 4.1Unit of measure
Number of persons with usual residence in Spain.
- 4.1Unit of measure
- 5Reference period
- 5.1Reference period
Population data are offered at 1 January for the 50 years following the year of compilation for the total national, as well as data from the following 15 years for Autonomous Communities and provinces.
For the demographic events (births, deaths and migrations) and for the basic demographic indicators (birth, fertility, mortality, migration indicators, growth and population structure), the time reference is the calendar year as of the year of compilation (included).Data referred to the period: Proyecciones 2024-2074
- 5.1Reference period
- 6Institutional mandate
- 6.1Legal acts and other agreements
The compilation and dissemination of the data are governed by the Statistical Law No. 12/1989 "Public Statistical Function" of May 9, 1989, and Law No. 4/1990 of June 29 on “National Budget of State for the year 1990" amended by Law No. 13/1996 "Fiscal, administrative and social measures" of December 30, 1996, makes compulsory all statistics included in the National Statistics Plan. The National Statistical Plan 2009-2012 was approved by the Royal Decree 1663/2008. It contains the statistics that must be developed in the four year period by the State General Administration's services or any other entity dependent on it. All statistics included in the National Statistics Plan are statistics for state purposes and are obligatory. The National Statistics Plan 2021-2024, approved by Royal Decree 1110/2020, of 15 December, is the Plan currently implemented. This statistical operation has governmental purposes, and it is included in the National Statistics Plan 2021-2024. (Statistics of the State Administration).
The compilation and dissemination of population projections is not harmonised at the European level, nor in general, at the international level. In particular, it is not regulated by any European regulation. The European Commission compiles and publishes its own population projections for all Member States (Europop), via its statistics office (Eurostat). The methodology and results thereof are the sole responsibility of Eurostat, and generally do not coincide with those compiled and published by each country.
- 6.2Data sharing
The exchanges of information needed to elaborate statistics between the INE and the rest of the State statistical offices (Ministerial Departments, independent bodies and administrative bodies depending on the State General Administration), or between these offices and the Autonomic statistical offices, are regulated in the LFEP (Law of the Public Statistic Function). This law also regulates the mechanisms of statistical coordination, and concludes cooperation agreements between the different offices when necessary.
Data are published on the INE website, and are available to all users. Moreover, they are distributed to all areas of the State Administration that require them for performing their functions.
- 6.1Legal acts and other agreements
- 7Confidentiality
- 7.1Confidentiality - policy
The Statistical Law No. 12/1989 specifies that the INE cannot publish, or make otherwise available, individual data or statistics that would enable the identification of data for any individual person or entity. Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society
- 7.2Confidentiality - data treatment
INE provides information on the protection of confidentiality at all stages of the statistical process: INE questionnaires for the operations in the national statistical plan include a legal clause protecting data under statistical confidentiality. Notices prior to data collection announcing a statistical operation notify respondents that data are subject to statistical confidentiality at all stages. For data processing, INE employees have available the INE data protection handbook, which specifies the steps that should be taken at each stage of processing to ensure reporting units' individual data are protected. The microdata files provided to users are anonymised.
Additional confidentiality measures have not been adopted, other than those indicated as customary for all INE operations.
- 7.1Confidentiality - policy
- 8Release policy
- 8.1Release calendar
The advance release calendar that shows the precise release dates for the coming year is disseminated in the last quarter of each year.
- 8.2Release calendar access
The calendar is disseminated on the INEs Internet website (Publications Calendar)
- 8.3User access
The data are released simultaneously according to the advance release calendar to all interested parties by issuing the press release. At the same time, the data are posted on the INE's Internet website (www.ine.es/en) almost immediately after the press release is issued. Also some predefined tailor-made requests are sent to registered users. Some users could receive partial information under embargo as it is publicly described in the European Statistics Code of Practice
- 8.1Release calendar
- 9Frequency of dissemination
- 9.1Frequency of dissemination
Every two years from 2014 onward
- 9.1Frequency of dissemination
- 10Accessibility and clarity
- 10.1News release
The results of the statistical operations are normally disseminated by using press releases that can be accessed via both the corresponding menu and the Press Releases Section in the web
- 10.2Publications
All of the information relating to this operation may be accessed via:
https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176953&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254735572981
- 10.3On-line database
INEbase is the system the INE uses to store statistical information on the Internet. It contains all the information the INE produces in electronic formats. The primary organisation of the information follows the theme-based classification of the Inventory of Statistical Operations of the State General Administration . The basic unit of INEbase is the statistical operation, defined as the set of activities that lead to obtaining statistical results on a determined sector or subject based on the individually collected data. Also included in the scope of this definition are synthesis preparation.
The number of accesses to the tables of this operation in 2023 was AC1 = 188,563.
- 10.4Micro-data access
A lot of statistical operations disseminate public domain anonymized files, available free of charge for downloading in the INE website Microdata Section
This operation is a synthesis statistic compiled using the aggregated results of different statistical sources. Therefore, microdata thereof are not available.
- 10.5Other
This operation enables meeting customised information requests by users that are not considered in the corresponding results tables, following a viability study, in all cases, performed by the INE. The request is carried via the Customer Service Area at the following link: https://www.ine.es/en/prodyser/informacion
- 10.6Documentation on methodology
The operation methodology may be viewed at:
AC3=100%
- 10.7Quality documentation
This standardized methodological report contains all of the elements of what is considered a "User-oriented quality report" for this operation
- 10.1News release
- 11Quality management
- 11.1Quality assurance
Quality assurance framework for the INE statistics is based on the ESSCoP, the European Statistics Code of Practice made by EUROSTAT. The ESSCoP is made up of 16 principles, gathered in three areas: Institutional Environment, Processes and Products. Each principle is associated with some indicators which make possible to measure it. In order to evaluate quality, EUROSTAT provides different tools: the indicators mentioned above, Self-assessment based on the DESAP model, peer review, user satisfaction surveys and other proceedings for evaluation.
Population Projections are compiled using all the information available on the recent demographic evolution. Moreover, their calculation methodology guarantees total coherence of their results on populations stocks and demographic events at all breakdown levels considered, which permits explaining the future demographic change that has been simulated from the perspective of each of the demographic phenomena determining it.
In addition, there is total coherence among all territorial levels. The quality of this synthesis operation is determined by the quality of the statistics used for its preparation, which include statistically filtered and processed data. By using data from other statistics, it does not require the collaboration of respondent units, nor does it generate data collection expenses.
- 11.2Quality assessment
We have verified the complete consistency of the results provided regarding population stocks and demographic events at all breakdown levels.
In 2014, independent modelling by Spanish/foreign nationality has been established, as a methodological improvement, in order to apply evolution profiles that differ, depending on the distinctive features of the Spanish and foreign subpopulations.
In 2018, independent modeling by Spain / foreign birthplace has been established, as a methodological improvement, in order to apply evolution profiles that differ, depending on the distinctive features of subpopulations born in Spain and born abroad.
The Population Projections are a synthesis statistical operation that uses data from other operations. Therefore, it entails no user burden, and it enables obtaining a significant volume of demographic information at a low cost.
The availability of a quantitative perspective regarding the future evolution of the population constitutes a primary-need input in any analysis exercise or socio-economic planning, whether carried out within the scope of the definition of public policy, or as necessary in the decision-making process of private investment. Therefore, the preparation of statistical simulations of the future resident population represents one of the operations with the longest tradition in the field of official statistics.
- 11.1Quality assurance
- 12Relevance
- 12.1User needs
This data constitute a preview of the future population of Spain, of each Autonomous Community and each province, serving as a basic tool for public and private planning and decision-making. It is available to all users (ministries, Autonomous Communities, local administrations and other bodies that make public policy decisions, companies and other economic and social agents) that require analysing the demographic evolution of the country, and also using it for the production and analysis of other types of statistical information.
- 12.2User satisfaction
The INE has carried out general user satisfaction surveys in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 and it plans to continue doing so every three years. The purpose of these surveys is to find out what users think about the quality of the information of the INE statistics and the extent to which their needs of information are covered. In addition, additional surveys are carried out in order to acknowledge better other fields such as dissemination of the information, quality of some publications...
On the INE website, in its section Methods and Projects / Quality and Code of Practice / INE quality management / User surveys are available surveys conducted to date.(Click next link)
In the User Satisfaction Surveys conducted to date, it is possible to view the evaluation of the "Population" sector in which this statistical operation is centred, which can help direct us with regard to user opinions of it.
- 12.3Completeness
This operation provides a complete statistical simulation of the future demographic evolution of the country, both in size and in composition of the population according to basic demographic characteristics, such as sex and age, as in the number and characteristics of the demographic events that determine this evolution of the population (births, deaths and migrations). With this, coverage is provided for 100% of the objectives that the National Statistical Plan establishes for this operation (R1=100%).
- 12.1User needs
- 13Accuracy and reliability
- 13.1Overall accuracy
This operation has been prepared using the information provided by the statistics of the demographic events occurring at each point in time, and therefore, the accuracy of its results depend on that of the information sources used.
- 13.2Sampling error
It is not applicable to this statistical operation, as these are synthesis statistics, compiled using other statistical sources, and not a sample survey.
- 13.3Non-sampling error
Given that it is a synthesis operation, based on the statistical processing of data from register sources (see section 18.1), non-sampling errors from this statistical operation are mainly due to the following:
- Possible registration errors, which we try to correct through a filtering process.
- A possible failure to fill in the variables, for which, an automatic imputation process is carried out.
- A possible lack of information at the time of estimation, due to delays in its registration, and to this end, an estimation process based on the behaviour observed in what was registered in previous periods is performed.The measure of these errors are described at the standardised methodological reports of each of the operations involved: Migrations Statistic, Vital Statistics and Statistic, Population Figures, Basic Demographic Indicators and Life Tables.
- 13.1Overall accuracy
- 14Timeliness and punctuality
- 14.1Timeliness
As of 2014, this operation is disseminated every two years, providing results of population stocks as of January 1 relating to the 50 following years for the national total, and relating to the 15 following years for the Autonomous Communities and provinces, based on an extension of the currently-observed demographic trends and behaviours, according to the latest corresponding information available.
TP2=175 days
- 14.2Punctuality
This operation is disseminated on the date established in the INE structural statistics calendar.
TP3=0
- 14.1Timeliness
- 15Coherence and Comparability
- 15.1Comparability - geographical
The results maintain total inter-territorial consistency, at all breakdown levels.
Some international bodies, such as Eurostat or the United Nations, prepare their own population projections for Spain, in accordance with their own purposes, methodologies and hypotheses, and therefore, in general, their results do not coincide amongst themselves or with those of this operation.
- 15.2Comparability - over time
The Population Projections cover the 50 years following the year of compilation, in the case of the national total, and the 15 years following the year of compilation, in the case of the Autonomous Communities and provinces. The starting point corresponds to the Population Figures at 1 January of the current year.
The length of the published series of comparable data is 50 for the national population data (referring to 1 January of each year projected) and for the national demographic events (referring to each year projected) (CC2=50).
The length of the published series of comparable data is 15 for the population data by Autonomous Community and province (referring to 1 January of each year projected) and for the demographic events by Autonomous Community and province (referring to each year projected) (CC2=15).
- 15.3Coherence - cross domain
The Population Projections use the population figures at 1 January of the current year, of the population continuous Statistics, as a starting point, thus constituting an extension of the population data of Spain into the future.
The Population Projections are totally coherent with the INE continuous Statistics and Migrations Statistic Migration and Changes of Residence Statisticsseries up until the reference period, serving as a basis for the preparation of the projections. Likewise, they maintain total coherence with the Vital Statistics Births and Deaths series referring to the population resident in Spain.
Some international bodies, such as Eurostat or the United Nations, prepare their own population projections for Spain, in accordance with their own purposes, methodologies and hypotheses, and therefore, in general, their results do not coincide amongst themselves or with those of this operation.
- 15.4Coherence - internal
The data maintains total inter-territorial and demographic consistency, with the population figures projected being the result of the demographic events that are also projected for each year in the reference period.
- 15.1Comparability - geographical
- 16Cost and burden
- 16.1Cost and burden
The Population Projections are a synthesis statistical operation that uses data from other operations. Therefore, it entails no cooperation of information units, so there are not data collection costs.
The estimation of the budgetary credit necessary to finance this operation, as foreseen in the 2024 Annual Programme, from the National Statistics Plan 2021-2024, comes to a total of 90.76 thousand euros.
- 16.1Cost and burden
- 17Data revision
- 17.1Data revision - policy
The INE of Spain has a policy which regulates the basic aspects of statistical data revision, seeking to ensure process transparency and product quality. This policy is laid out in the document approved by the INE board of directors on 13 March of 2015, which is available on the INE website, in the section "Methods and projects/Quality and Code of Practice/INE’s Quality management/INE’s Revision policy" (link).
This general policy sets the criteria that the different type of revisions should follow: routine revision- it is the case of statistics whose production process includes regular revisions-; more extensive revision- when methodological or basic reference source changes take place-; and exceptional revision- for instance, when an error appears in a published statistic-.
Every two years, new Population Projections will be disseminated, whose results cover the 50 following years for the national total and the 15 following years for the Autonomous Communities and provinces.
In any case, this entails the revision of the projections disseminated two years prior, as the latest available demographic information updates the behaviour and trends simulating the future demographic evolution. - 17.2Data revision - practice
The final data of the sources used (see section 18.1) replaces the prior data, once disseminated.
Likewise, each projection includes two periods of demographic information, with regard to the projection disseminated two years prior.
Therefore, the results of each new projection completely update the results of the previous projections.
- 17.1Data revision - policy
- 18Statistical processing
- 18.1Source data
This is a synthesis statistical operation, prepared using the results from different sources regarding the past and present demographic evolution. Specifically, the following are used:
- The population figures at 1 January of the current year, from continuous population statistics, as a starting point.
- The Vital Statistics, in the projection of the future evolution of fertility and mortality.
- The Migration and Changes of Residence Statisticsf, in the projection of the future evolution of migrations.
- Basic Demographic Indicators, mainly those related to fertility and mortality in the projection of the future evolution of said phenomena.
- Life tables, in the projection of the future evolution of mortality.
- 18.2Frequency of data collection
Two-yearly
- 18.3Data collection
Data prepared using the results of the Vital Statistics, the Migrations and Changes of Residence Statistics, the resident population figures from the Continuous population statistics, of the Basic Demographic Indicators and of the Life tables. It is based on an extension of the current trends into the future, compiled using the available demographic sources, and according to the calculation methodology described at:
- 18.4Data validation
Multiple analyses are performed of the coherence of the possible future evolution of the resident population figures and of the main indicators thereof, and in turn, of these figures with the data available on the different demographic statistical sources.
- 18.5Data compilation
The general calculation process is based on the classical component method. The method is applied according to the following scheme: starting with the population resident in a certain geographical area, and with the retrospective observation of each of the basic demographic components (mortality, fertility and migration), the goal is to ascertain the resident population at subsequent dates, under the hypotheses established regarding the future of these phenomena, which determine their growth and structure by age.
The component method has been applied according to a multi-regional projection model that enables the total consistence of results at all territorial levels considered, and the necessary coherence between demographic flows and population stocks. - 18.6Adjustment
No adjustments are made
- 18.1Source data
- 19Comment
- 19.1Comment
This statistical operation is a modification, recasting or segregation of others that existed prior to 2014.
It is a recasting of the Short-Term Population Projection (30269) and the Long-Term Population Projection (30270), which were delisted from the Inventory of Statistical Operations in 2015.
- 19.1Comment