7 September 2026

Advance Estimator of the Resident Tourism Survey

July 2026

Imagen estadística experimental

Main results

The number of trips made by residents in Spain decreased by 0.6% in July to 18.7 million.

More information

Today, the INE publishes for the first time the Advance Estimator of the Resident Tourism Survey (ETR - Encuesta de Turismo de Residentes), a monthly advance estimate of the number of tourist trips taken by residents in Spain.

The aim of this new experimental operation is to significantly improve the timeliness of information, reducing the existing lag between the time the trips are taken and the availability of the statistical results.

The Advanced Estimator is published approximately 35 to 40 days after the end of the reference month. The ETR itself requires a longer collection period and is quarterly in nature, so in certain cases the final results may take up to five months after the reference month to come available.

The main purpose of this estimate is to provide an early signal on how the number of trips is change by providing a provisional advance result prior to the publication of the final results.

Travel

In July 2026, residents in Spain took an estimated total of 18.7 million trips, which represented a variation of -0.6% compared to the same month in 2025.

In the months with reference to July of the ETR for which definitive information is available, the number of trips has shown a downward evolution in recent years, a trend that would continue in 2026, according to this preview.

Annual rate of change of the ETR and the Advance Estimator.

Percentage

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The Advance Estimator approximates the final results of the ETR

The results of the Advance Estimator can be subsequently compared with the final data from the ETR. For months in which both results are available, the difference between the preliminary and final data allows for an evaluation of the predictive capacity of the new indicator.

Thus, between January 2025 and March 2026, the average difference between the two data was 309,444 trips, equivalent to 2.2% of the estimated number of trips. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the period was 2.2%.

Number of trips from the ETR and the Advance Estimator

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However, caution should be taken when interpreting the results of the Advance Estimator, as it is an experimental statistic and its methodology is still under evaluation and improvement.

Data revisions and updates

The data published today are provisional and will be revised when the final data from that quarter are released. The final ETR data for April, May, and June will be published on 24 September, and those from July, August and September on 21 December. All the results of this operation are available at INEbase.

Methodological note

The ETR Advance Estimator aims to provide a preview of the number of tourist trips, making it comparable in timeliness to other tourism statistics. It combines information from a partial subsample of the ETR, with data from mobile telephony and other variables, using statistical models and machine learning.

Type of operation:: experimental.
Population scope:: population aged 15 years or over residing in main family dwellings in the national territory (indirect information is collected from those under 15 years of age).
Geographical scope:: the entire national territory.
Sources used:: ETR subsample (first 25 days of collection, 45% of the final sample for the month), auxiliary information on mobile telephony and calendar variables.
Estimation method:: combination (stacking) of different statistical and machine learning models, with validation through moving windows and evaluation by MAE, RMSE and MAPE.
Relationship with the ETR:: The ETR Advance Estimator is a flash estimate and does not replace the final ETR results, and may present differences that are corrected in the official quarterly publication.
Frequency of dissemination:: monthly, with a lag of 35-40 days.

For further information, please consult the technical project.

INE statistics are produced in accordance with the Code of Good Practice for European Statistics. More information on Quality at INE and Code of Best Practices.

For further information see

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