The Harmonised Business Confidence Index decreases by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 as compared with the third quarter.
Quarterly rate
Four of the five sector analysed reduced confiance with respect to the previous quarter. Transport and Accomodation (-2.4%) registered the greatest decreases. On the other hand, Other services (-0.7%) registered the lowest decreases.
The five sizes of establishments analysed presented a decrease in confidence, as compared with the previous quarter. 1,0000 or more employees (-2.3%) registered the greatest decrease and Less than 10 employees (-0.9%) the smallest decrease.
21.5% of business establishments managers considered that the performance of their business during the fourth quarter of 2025 would be favourable, while 13.6% thought it would be unfavourable.
11,4% of business establishments managers consider that employment, referring to personnel hired in their business, will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, while 11,5% believe that it will decrease.
11,4% of business establishments managers foresee that the price level of their business will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, while 4,6% estimate that it will decrease.
21.9% of business establishments managers expressed a favourable opinion regarding the performance of their business in the third quarter 2025. In turn, 14.9% had an unfavourable opinion.
Business confidence decreased in the fourth quarter of 2025 as compared with previous quarter in 12 autonomous communities and increased in the other five.
The largest decreases were recorded in Illes Balears (-4.5%), Cantabria (-4.2%) and Comunidad de Madrid and Cataluña (-1.9% both). The largest increases were recorded in Canarias (1.7%), Región de Murcia (0.4%) and Castilla-La Mancha, Galicia and País Vasco (all of them 0.3%).
Quarterly Rate
The data published today are final and will not be subject to further revision. There have been no updates to previous publications. All results are available on INEBase.
According to the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/137 INE has started the works to incorporate the new National Classification of Economic Activities CNAE-2025 in all the statistical operations.
In the case of the BCI, the release of the first results with CNAE-2025 will take place in April 2028.
The objective of this survey is to find out, at a given time, the vision that establishment managers have about their situation.
The BCI survey collects opinions from establishment managers regarding the performance of their business for each last quarter and on their expectations for each coming quarter.
The methodology is based on the Japanese TANKAN index, that is, there is no weighting or elevation depending on the characteristics of the establishment since the opinion of each informant counts equally.
The survey methodology enables the integration of analogous data compiled by the statistics services of the Autonomous Communities, once their consistency is checked so they can be incorporated into the general process of the survey. There are currently agreements signed to this effect with Andalucia, Illes Balears, Canarias, Castilla y León, Cataluña, la Rioja, Extremadura and Comunitat Valenciana.
Further information is available in the methodology and the standarized methodological report.
INE's statistics are produced according to the European Statistics Code of Practice. For further information at Quality at INE and Code of Practice.
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