Business Confidence Indicators

• 1. Contact

  • 1.1. Contact organisation

    • National Statistics Institute of Spain

  • 1.5. Contact mail address

    • Avenida de Manoteras 50-52 - 28050 Madrid

• 2. Metadata update

  • 2.1. Metadata last certified

    • 28/02/2025

  • 2.2. Metadata last posted

    • 19/04/2024

  • 2.3. Metadata last update

    • 28/02/2025

• 3. Statistical presentation

  • 3.1. Data description

    • The survey on which the Business Confidence Indicators (BCI) are based is the first opinion survey carried out by the INE.

      The objective of this survey is to know, at any given time, the view of those responsible for establishments on the situation and expectations of their business.

      The BCI survey collects the opinions of establishment managers on their businesses' progress in each preceding quarter and on their expectations for each coming quarter.

      The Business Confidence Indicators develop three indicators on a quarterly basis. On a national level, by activity sectors according to the National Classification of Economic Activities (CNAE-2009), by size of establishment, measured according to the number of employees and finally by Autonomous Communities.

      The survey also collects information on other variables related to the establishments, from which information is provided on the evolution of the situation and the expectations of the level of employment in terms of hired personnel, and of the price level, both broken down by activity sectors and size of the establishment, and for those establishments with main industrial activity, information is also provided on the degree of utilization of the productive capacity according to different percentage ranges.

  • 3.2. Classification system
    • • Clasificaciones utilizadas

        • The classification system used for stratification by economic activity is CNAE-2009.

          For stratification by size of establishment, the number of employees declared in INE's Central Company Directory (CCD) is used.

  • 3.3. Sector coverage

    • All establishments whose main activity is included in the following CNAE-2009 sections: B to N (both inclusive, except for division 70), R (only divisions 92 and 93) and S (only divisions 95 and 96).

  • 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions
    • • Establishment or Local Unit

        • Establishment or Local Unit is the productive unit located in a topographically marked place (workshop, mine, factory, etc.), from which economic activities are carried out by one or more persons from the same company. The establishment or Local Unit is the observation or information unit, that is, the unit chosen from the directory and to which the questionnaire data is to refer

      • Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI)

        • It is constructed from the Situation and from the Expectations. The current base for this index is the first quarter of 2013, whose value in this first quarter is therefore equal to 100.

      • Harmonised expectation indicator (called Expectations)

        • The Harmonised Expectation Indicator (known as the Expectations) includes the difference or balance between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the coming quarter. It may fluctuate between -100 (all respondents are pessimistic, that is, they have ticked the Unfavourable box regarding the next quarter) and +100 (all respondents are optimistic, that is, they have ticked the Favourable box). An intuitive interpretation thereof is simple and direct. If the Expectations are positive, the optimists exceed the pessimists with regard to the coming quarter.

      • Harmonised situation indicator (known as Situation)

        • This is the difference or balance between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the closing quarter.

  • 3.5. Statistical unit

    • The statistical unit of this operation is the establishment.

  • 3.6. Statistical population

    • All establishments whose main activity is included in the following CNAE-2009 sections: B to N (both inclusive, except for division 70), R (only divisions 92 and 93) and S (only divisions 95 and 96).

  • 3.7. Reference area

    • From a geographical point of view, the statistic covers the whole of the national territory except Ceuta and Melilla and the sample is representative both at the national level and at the level of the Autonomous Communities.

      The survey indicators are released both at the national level and by Autonomous Communities.

  • 3.8. Time coverage

    • The statistic is carried out quarterly, starting from the first quarter of 2012. However, it has been carried out in a harmonised way since the first quarter of 2013.

  • 3.9. Base period

    • The Indicator is calculated using the first quarter of 2013 as a base.

• 4. Unit of measure

  • 4.1. Unit of measure

    • The Harmonised expectations indicator includes the difference or balance between the percentage of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the coming quarter. It ay fluctuate between –100 (all respondents are pessimistic regarding the next quarter) and +100 (all respondents are optimistic in their expectations).

      The Harmonised situation indicator is the difference or balance between the percentage of favourable and unfavourable responses with regard to the closing quarter.

      The Harmonised Business Confidence Index has been built from an appropriately normalised geometric average between the Situation and the Expectations.

      The same occurs with the variables of evolution and expectations of employment and prices, or with the utilization of productive capacity, for which percentages or balances are offered.

      Thus, neither of the indicators have a regular unit of measure, it is the percentage differences or a geometric average of these.

• 5. Reference period

  • 5.1. Reference period

    • The reference is quarterly and questions are asked on the quarter that is ending and the quarter that is beginning, which allows for the preparation of a confidence indicator in the first days of the reference quarter.

      Data referred to the period: Trimestral A: 2025 TRI: I

• 6. Institutional mandate

  • 6.1. Legal acts and other agreements

    • The compilation and dissemination of the data are governed by the Statistical Law No. 12/1989 "Public Statistical Function" of May 9, 1989, and Law No. 4/1990 of June 29 on “National Budget of State for the year 1990" amended by Law No. 13/1996 "Fiscal, administrative and social measures" of December 30, 1996, makes compulsory all statistics included in the National Statistics Plan. The National Statistical Plan 2009-2012 was approved by the Royal Decree 1663/2008. It contains the statistics that must be developed in the four year period by the State General Administration's services or any other entity dependent on it. All statistics included in the National Statistics Plan are statistics for state purposes and are obligatory. The National Statistics Plan 2025-2028, approved by Royal Decree 1225/2024, of  3 December, is the Plan currently implemented. This statistical operation has governmental purposes, and it is included in the National Statistics Plan 2025-2028. (Statistics of the State Administration).

      The Harmonised Business Confidence Index is prepared with the support of the Central Statistics Offices of the Autonomous Communities (OCECAS) that have been considered appropriate for inclusion in this indicator through collaboration agreements.

  • 6.2. Data sharing

    • The exchanges of information needed to elaborate statistics between the INE and the rest of the State statistical offices (Ministerial Departments, independent bodies and administrative bodies depending on the State General Administration), or between these offices and the Autonomic statistical offices, are regulated in the LFEP (Law of the Public Statistic Function). This law also regulates the mechanisms of statistical coordination, and concludes cooperation agreements between the different offices when necessary.

      Collaboration with Autonomous Communities consists of the inclusion of samples provided by those that want to be integrated into the Index.

• 7. Confidentiality

  • 7.1. Confidentiality - policy

    • The Statistical Law No. 12/1989 specifies that the INE cannot publish, or make otherwise available, individual data or statistics that would enable the identification of data for any individual person or entity. Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society

  • 7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment

    • INE provides information on the protection of confidentiality at all stages of the statistical process: INE questionnaires for the operations in the national statistical plan include a legal clause protecting data under statistical confidentiality. Notices prior to data collection announcing a statistical operation notify respondents that data are subject to statistical confidentiality at all stages. For data processing, INE employees have available the INE data protection handbook, which specifies the steps that should be taken at each stage of processing to ensure reporting units' individual data are protected. The microdata files provided to users are anonymised.

      .

• 8. Release policy

  • 8.1. Release calendar

    • The advance release calendar that shows the precise release dates for the coming year is disseminated in the last quarter of each year.

  • 8.2. Release calendar access

    • The calendar is disseminated on the INEs Internet website (Publications Calendar)

  • 8.3. User access

    • The data are released simultaneously according to the advance release calendar to all interested parties by issuing the press release. At the same time, the data are posted on the INE's Internet website (www.ine.es/en) almost immediately after the press release is issued. Also some predefined tailor-made requests are sent to registered users. Some users could receive partial information under embargo as it is publicly described in the European Statistics Code of Practice

• 9. Frequency of dissemination

  • 9.1. Frequency of dissemination

    • Quarterly

• 10. Accessibility and clarity

  • 10.1. News release

    • The results of the statistical operations are normally disseminated by using press releases that can be accessed via both the corresponding menu and the Press Releases Section in the web

  • 10.2. Publications

    • When the data is published, a press release is disseminated. This can be found on the INE website.

      https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736163552&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254735576550

  • 10.3. On-line database

    • INEbase is the system the INE uses to store statistical information on the Internet. It contains all the information the INE produces in electronic formats. The primary organisation of the information follows the theme-based classification of the Inventory of Statistical Operations of the State General Administration . The basic unit of INEbase is the statistical operation, defined as the set of activities that lead to obtaining statistical results on a determined sector or subject based on the individually collected data. Also included in the scope of this definition are synthesis preparation.

      The following link contains information from this survey.

      https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736163552&menu=resultados&idp=1254735576550

      In 2024 the number of accesses to the ICE website was AC1=83,803.

       

  • 10.4. Micro-data access
    • A lot of statistical operations disseminate public domain anonymized files, available free of charge for downloading in the INE website Microdata Section

      No microdata file is provided for this statistical operation. Microdata files are only provided to other statistical bodies (Statistical Institutes of Autonomous Communities) that also have an obligation to maintain statistical secrecy.

  • 10.5. Other

    • In 2024 the number of accesses to the methodological report was AC2=1,265.

      Users can request specific, tailored information use through the INE Information area, preserving data confidentiality in all cases. https://www.ine.es/ss/Satellite?c=Page&p=1254735550786&pagename=ProductosYServicios%2FPYSLayout&cid=1254735550786&L=1

  • 10.6. Documentation on methodology

    • The metadata completeness indicator is AC3=100%.

      A detailed description of the survey's methodology is available at:

      https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736163552&menu=metodologia&idp=1254735576550

       

  • 10.7. Quality documentation

    • Sections 10.6 to 17 of this document are considered to be the user-oriented quality report on this operation.

• 11. Quality management

  • 11.1. Quality assurance

    • Quality assurance framework for the INE statistics is based on the ESSCoP, the European Statistics Code of Practice made by EUROSTAT. The ESSCoP is made up of 16 principles, gathered in three areas: Institutional Environment, Processes and Products. Each principle is associated with some indicators which make possible to measure it. In order to evaluate quality, EUROSTAT provides different tools: the indicators mentioned above, Self-assessment based on the DESAP model, peer review, user satisfaction surveys and other proceedings for evaluation.

      The qualitative evaluation is the full confidence in the truthfulness of the response on the opinion of collaborators.

  • 11.2. Quality assessment

    • This statistical product's main strength is both the proximity between the collection and publication of the data, as well as its collection method via the internet.

      It is a simple questionnaire and only deals with opinions, so there are no possible errors regarding data.

• 12. Relevance

  • 12.1. User needs

    • National and Autonomous Community data may interest both companies and individuals. According to certain analysts, it is considered an advance indicator of activity.

  • 12.2. User satisfaction

    • The INE has carried out general user satisfaction surveys in 2007, 2010, 2013,  2016 and 2019 and it plans to continue doing so every three years. The purpose of these surveys is to find out what users think about the quality of the information of the INE statistics and the extent to which their needs of information are covered. In addition, additional surveys are carried out in order to acknowledge better other fields such as dissemination of the information, quality of some publications...

      On the INE website, in its section Methods and Projects / Quality and Code of Practice / INE quality management / User surveys are available surveys conducted to date.(Click  next link)

       

      There is no data in this regard for this indicator.

  • 12.3. Completeness

    • 100% of the results requested in the National Statistics Plan are provided.

      Available obligatory statistical results rate R1=100%

• 13. Accuracy and reliability

  • 13.1. Overall accuracy

    • In this survey there is no system to measure accuracy. It is an opinion survey.

  • 13.2. Sampling error

    • The TANKAN method is used in which elevation factors are not utilised, meaning that this is not strictly a sample survey.

  • 13.3. Non-sampling error

    • In 2023 the non-response rate is A4=23.0% and the overcoverage rate is A2=0.51%.

• 14. Timeliness and punctuality

  • 14.1. Timeliness

    • The publication is released in the first calendar days of each quarter, and both the situation relative to the quarter that has just ended and the expectations for the quarter that is beginning are published therein, as well as the Harmonised Business Confidence Indices (normalised geometric average of both).

      If we consider the expectations as data for the calculation of the TP2 indicator, it would be less than 2 months and 12 days for the first quarter of 2021.

      If we consider the situation as data for the calculation of the TP2 indicator, it would be 19 days for the first quarter of 2021.

      TP2 (expectations)= 2 months and 12 days

      TP2 (situation)= 19 days

      This temporal delay is due to the time necessary to collect the questionnaire.

  • 14.2. Punctuality

    • The INE data availability calendar is strictly fulfilled TP3=100%.

• 15. Coherence and Comparability

  • 15.1. Comparability - geographical

    • The indicators calculated for the national total and for the different Autonomous Communities are comparable to each other, as the same calculation methods are used at all levels.

      The survey's methodology can be found at the following link.

      https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736163552&menu=metodologia&idp=1254735576550

  • 15.2. Comparability - over time

    • From the first quarter of 2013 until now. An additional element each quarter.

      Number of comparable elements in a time series from its last gap (calculated for the 1st quarter of 2025): CC2=49

  • 15.3. Coherence - cross domain

    • This survey is comparable with the climate indicators in the Business Tendency Survey, prepared by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness.

  • 15.4. Coherence - internal

    • All results are coherent with one another.

• 16. Cost and burden

  • 16.1. Cost and burden

    • The 2025 Annual Programme estimate of the necessary budgetary appropriation to finance this survey is 228.95 thounsand euros.

      In terms of the burden for the respondent, it is a simple survey exclusively collecting opinions, meaning that the burden is as small as possible thanks to the questionnaire's design.

• 17. Data revision

  • 17.1. Data revision - policy

    • The INE of Spain has a policy which regulates the basic aspects of statistical data revision, seeking to ensure process transparency and product quality. This policy is laid out in the document approved by the INE board of directors on 13 March of 2015, which is available on the INE website, in the section "Methods and projects/Quality and Code of Practice/INE’s Quality management/INE’s Revision policy" (link).

      This general policy sets the criteria that the different type of revisions should follow:  routine revision- it is the case of statistics whose production process includes regular revisions-; more extensive revision- when methodological or basic reference source changes take place-; and exceptional revision- for instance, when an error appears in a published statistic-.

      The publication of data is definitive.

  • 17.2. Data revision - practice

    • Not carried out. They are definitive data.

• 18. Statistical processing

  • 18.1. Source data

    • The data are provided by establishment managers, as they are the ones that have an overall grasp on their business' progress and on the development of the variables about which information is requested.

      The sample of establishments whose main activity is included in the following CNAE-2009 sections: B to N (both inclusive, except for division 70), R (only divisions 92 and 93) and S (only divisions 95 and 96) are extracted from INE's Central Company Directory.

  • 18.2. Frequency of data collection

    • Quarterly

  • 18.3. Data collection

    • In 2024, 87.1% of the data collection for this survey was done via the web questionnaire.

  • 18.4. Data validation

    • Not carried out. This is not necessary as it is an opinion survey.

  • 18.5. Data compilation

    • The complementary samples of the various Autonomous Communities that are included by agreement in the harmonised indicator are adjusted.

  • 18.6. Adjustment

    • It is not necessary to carry out any seasonal adjustment for this survey as the questionnaire should already be completed bearing in mind the current time of year.

• 19. Comment

  • 19.1. Comment