Household Projection

• 1. Contact

  • 1.1. Contact organisation

    • National Statistics Institute of Spain

  • 1.5. Contact mail address

    • Avenida de Manoteras 50-52 - 28050 Madrid

• 2. Metadata update

  • 2.1. Metadata last certified

    • 18/06/2024

  • 2.2. Metadata last posted

    • 24/06/2024

  • 2.3. Metadata last update

    • 18/06/2024

• 3. Statistical presentation

  • 3.1. Data description

    • The household projection is a statistical simulation of the number of future households in Spain, in each Autonomous Community and each province, in case the demographic tendencies and social behaviours currently observed are extended. This information is provided every two years with a 15-year projection horizon and broken down by size of household. Due to the way in which they are compiled, the results are totally coherent with the results of the Population Projections also disseminated by the INE.

       

  • 3.2. Classification system
    • • Clasificaciones utilizadas

        • In accordance with INE standards, the official administrative division of Autonomous Communities and provinces are used and may be viewed at:

          https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736177031&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254734710990

           

  • 3.3. Sector coverage

    • The survey includes the households formed by the population resident in family dwellings in Spain, which account for more than 99% of the total population resident in Spain. It does not include the population resident in group dwellings.

  • 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions
    • • Family dwelling

        • A dwelling designed to be inhabited by one person or more who do not constitute a group, regardless of the links between them.

      • Group dwelling

        • Dwelling designed to be inhabited by a group of persons subjected to a common authority or scheme that is not based on family ties or specific coexistence schemes. The group dwelling may only partially occupy a building, or more frequently, the entirety of the building.

      • Household according to residence criterion

        • A human group formed by one or more persons who regularly reside in a family dwelling for the entire year or most of it. There does not necessarily have to be kinship relations among the members of the group.

      • Resident population

        • The population resident in a given geographical scope is defined as those persons who, on the reference date, have established their usual residence therein.

      • Size of the household

        • Number of members of the household

      • Usual residence

        • Place where a person normally spends rest periods, not taking into account temporary absences due to leisure trips, holidays, visits to family and friends, business, visiting friends or relatives or religious pilgrimages. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight that only usual residents in a region will be considered: - Those who, according to the previous definition, would usually have lived therein for a continuous period of at least 12 months. - Those who, according to the previous definition, would have established their usual residence therein less than 12 months ago, but with the intention of remaining therein for at least one year. Where the above circumstances cannot be established, "usual residence" shall mean the place of registered residence.

  • 3.5. Statistical unit

    • Households of the national territory.

  • 3.6. Statistical population

    • Households formed by the resident population in Spain, in each Autonomous Community and in each province.

  • 3.7. Reference area

    • The covered area is the entire national territory. Data are provided at national, regional and provincial level, including Ceuta and Melilla.

       

       

  • 3.8. Time coverage

    • Data is provided at 1 January of the 15 years following the year of compilation.

  • 3.9. Base period

    • 1 January of the year of compilation.

• 4. Unit of measure

  • 4.1. Unit of measure

    • The unit of measure used in this statistical operation is the number of households.

• 5. Reference period

  • 5.1. Reference period

    • 1 January of each year of the fifteen years following the year of compilation. Data referred to the period: 2024-2039.

• 6. Institutional mandate

  • 6.1. Legal acts and other agreements

    • The compilation and dissemination of the data are governed by the Statistical Law No. 12/1989 "Public Statistical Function" of May 9, 1989, and Law No. 4/1990 of June 29 on “National Budget of State for the year 1990" amended by Law No. 13/1996 "Fiscal, administrative and social measures" of December 30, 1996, makes compulsory all statistics included in the National Statistics Plan. The National Statistical Plan 2009-2012 was approved by the Royal Decree 1663/2008. It contains the statistics that must be developed in the four year period by the State General Administration's services or any other entity dependent on it. All statistics included in the National Statistics Plan are statistics for state purposes and are obligatory. The National Statistics Plan 2021-2024, approved by Royal Decree 1110/2020, of 15  December, is the Plan currently implemented. This statistical operation has governmental purposes, and it is included in the National Statistics Plan 2021-2024. (Statistics of the State Administration).

      The compilation and dissemination of household projections is not harmonised at European level nor, in general, at international level. In particular, it is not regulated by any European regulation.

  • 6.2. Data sharing

    • The exchanges of information needed to elaborate statistics between the INE and the rest of the State statistical offices (Ministerial Departments, independent bodies and administrative bodies depending on the State General Administration), or between these offices and the Autonomic statistical offices, are regulated in the LFEP (Law of the Public Statistic Function). This law also regulates the mechanisms of statistical coordination, and concludes cooperation agreements between the different offices when necessary.

      .

• 7. Confidentiality

  • 7.1. Confidentiality - policy

    • The Statistical Law No. 12/1989 specifies that the INE cannot publish, or make otherwise available, individual data or statistics that would enable the identification of data for any individual person or entity. Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society

  • 7.2. Confidentiality - data treatment

    • INE provides information on the protection of confidentiality at all stages of the statistical process: INE questionnaires for the operations in the national statistical plan include a legal clause protecting data under statistical confidentiality. Notices prior to data collection announcing a statistical operation notify respondents that data are subject to statistical confidentiality at all stages. For data processing, INE employees have available the INE data protection handbook, which specifies the steps that should be taken at each stage of processing to ensure reporting units' individual data are protected. The microdata files provided to users are anonymised.

      La proyección de hogares solo trabaja con datos agregados.

• 8. Release policy

  • 8.1. Release calendar

    • The advance release calendar that shows the precise release dates for the coming year is disseminated in the last quarter of each year.

  • 8.2. Release calendar access

    • The calendar is disseminated on the INEs Internet website (Publications Calendar)

  • 8.3. User access

    • The data are released simultaneously according to the advance release calendar to all interested parties by issuing the press release. At the same time, the data are posted on the INE's Internet website (www.ine.es/en) almost immediately after the press release is issued. Also some predefined tailor-made requests are sent to registered users. Some users could receive partial information under embargo as it is publicly described in the European Statistics Code of Practice

• 9. Frequency of dissemination

  • 9.1. Frequency of dissemination

    • Every two years from 2014.

• 10. Accessibility and clarity

  • 10.1. News release

    • The results of the statistical operations are normally disseminated by using press releases that can be accessed via both the corresponding menu and the Press Releases Section in the web

  • 10.2. Publications

    • All of the information relating to this operation may be accessed via the INE website.

      https://ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176954&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254735572981

      All dissemination is carried out online; specific publications are not published.

       

  • 10.3. On-line database

    • INEbase is the system the INE uses to store statistical information on the Internet. It contains all the information the INE produces in electronic formats. The primary organisation of the information follows the theme-based classification of the Inventory of Statistical Operations of the State General Administration . The basic unit of INEbase is the statistical operation, defined as the set of activities that lead to obtaining statistical results on a determined sector or subject based on the individually collected data. Also included in the scope of this definition are synthesis preparation.

      The link where users may view the results and documentation relating to this operation is: https://ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176954&menu=resultados&idp=1254735572981

      During the year 2023, 36177 accesses to the Household Projection operation were recorded on the website.

      AC1=36177.

       

  • 10.4. Micro-data access
    • A lot of statistical operations disseminate public domain anonymized files, available free of charge for downloading in the INE website Microdata Section

      Household projections are synthesis statistics compiled from the aggregate results of several statistical sources. Therefore, microdata thereof are not available.

  • 10.5. Other

    • This operation enables meeting customised information requests by users that are not considered in the corresponding results tables, following a viability study, in all cases, performed by the INE. The request is carried via the User Information Area in the following link: https://www.ine.es/en/prodyser/informacion

  • 10.6. Documentation on methodology

    • The methodology of the operation may be viewed at:https://www.ine.es/en/inebaseDYN/proh30276/docs/meto_proh_en.pdf

  • 10.7. Quality documentation

    • Fields 10.6 to 17.2 of this document are considered to be the user-oriented quality report for this operation.

• 11. Quality management

  • 11.1. Quality assurance

    • Quality assurance framework for the INE statistics is based on the ESSCoP, the European Statistics Code of Practice made by EUROSTAT. The ESSCoP is made up of 16 principles, gathered in three areas: Institutional Environment, Processes and Products. Each principle is associated with some indicators which make possible to measure it. In order to evaluate quality, EUROSTAT provides different tools: the indicators mentioned above, Self-assessment based on the DESAP model, peer review, user satisfaction surveys and other proceedings for evaluation.

      Household Projections are compiled using all the information available on the recent demographic evolution. Due to the way in which they are compiled, the results are totally coherent with the results of the Population Projections also disseminated by the INE. Moreover, there is total coherence among all territorial levels.

      There is no international nor European regulation regarding standards about household projections, although internationally accepted models are used.

  • 11.2. Quality assessment

    • The quality of this synthesis operation is determined by the quality of the statistics used for its preparation, which includes statistically filtered and processed data.

      The two-year periodicity of the operation guarantees the updating of its results in terms of correspondence with the most recent social and demographic evolution, and therefore its greater usefulness.

• 12. Relevance

  • 12.1. User needs

    • These data constitute a view in advance of the future households in Spain, of each Autonomous Community and each province, serving as a basic tool for public and private planning and decision-making. They are available to all users (ministries, Autonomous Communities, local administrations and other bodies that make political decisions, companies and other economic and social agents) that require analysing the social and demographic evolution of the country and also using them for the production and analysis of other type of statistical information.

  • 12.2. User satisfaction

    • The INE has carried out general user satisfaction surveys in 2007, 2010, 2013,  2016 and 2019 and it plans to continue doing so every three years. The purpose of these surveys is to find out what users think about the quality of the information of the INE statistics and the extent to which their needs of information are covered. In addition, additional surveys are carried out in order to acknowledge better other fields such as dissemination of the information, quality of some publications...

      On the INE website, in its section Methods and Projects / Quality and Code of Practice / INE quality management / User surveys are available surveys conducted to date.(Click  next link)

       

  • 12.3. Completeness

    • This operation currently provides a statistical simulation of the future demographic evolution of the country in terms of number of households that make up the population as well as their size, in accordance with the evolution of the population itself regarding its demographic characteristics and the demographic phenomena that determine them (births, deaths and migrations). With this, 100% of the objectives that the National Statistical Plan establishes for this operation are covered.

      R1=100%

• 13. Accuracy and reliability

  • 13.1. Overall accuracy

    • This operation has been prepared using the information provided by the statistics of the demographic events occurring at each point in time, and therefore, the accuracy of its results depend on that of the information sources used.

  • 13.2. Sampling error

    • It is not applicable to this statistical operation, as these are synthesis statistics, compiled using other statistical sources, and not a sample survey.

       

  • 13.3. Non-sampling error

    • As this is a synthetic operation, based on the statistical processing of data from register sources (see section 18.1), this statistical operation's non-sampling errors are those coming from the statistical operations used to obtain the Household Projection:

      - The Population and Housing Censuses - Population Projections - Continuous Population Statistics

• 14. Timeliness and punctuality

  • 14.1. Timeliness

    • This operation is disseminated every two years (TP2=2 years), providing results regarding the following fifteen years based on extending the demographic and social tendencies that are currently observed, according to the last available information to this regard.

  • 14.2. Punctuality

    • This operation is disseminated within the date established in the INE structural statistics calendar (TP3=0; it is disseminated with no delay).

• 15. Coherence and Comparability

  • 15.1. Comparability - geographical

    • The results maintain total inter-territorial consistency, at all breakdown levels.

  • 15.2. Comparability - over time

    • Household Projections cover the 15 years following the year of compilation, so the length of the projected comparable data series is always 15. 

      - CC2(projected data) = 15

      The results are revised every 2 years, covering the following fifteen years.

  • 15.3. Coherence - cross domain

    • Due to the way in which Household Projections are compiled, they are totally consistent with the Population Projections at 1 January of each year at any considered territorial level. There is no international nor European regulation regarding the household projections, therefore the possible projections compiled by other international bodies such as EUROSTAT or UN, regarding households in Spain, would respond to their own purposes, methodologies and hypotheses. Therefore, in general, these results would not coincide among one another nor with the results of this operation. The same occurs with the household projections carried out by some Statistics Institutes of the Autonomous Communities.

  • 15.4. Coherence - internal

    • The data maintains total inter-territorial and demographic consistency, since the data at national and Autonomous Community levels are obtained by aggregating the data resulting for each province and respond to the population figures projected for them each year of the reference period.

• 16. Cost and burden

  • 16.1. Cost and burden

    • These are synthesis and analysis statistics, compiled by using other sources. Therefore, they do not require collaboration from respondent units, nor do they generate data collection costs. In the 2024 Annual Program of the 2021-2024 National Statistics Plan, the estimate of the necessary budget appropriation to finance this statistical operation is 204.39 thousand euros.

• 17. Data revision

  • 17.1. Data revision - policy

    • The INE of Spain has a policy which regulates the basic aspects of statistical data revision, seeking to ensure process transparency and product quality. This policy is laid out in the document approved by the INE board of directors on 13 March of 2015, which is available on the INE website, in the section "Methods and projects/Quality and Code of Practice/INE’s Quality management/INE’s Revision policy" (link).

      This general policy sets the criteria that the different type of revisions should follow:  routine revision- it is the case of statistics whose production process includes regular revisions-; more extensive revision- when methodological or basic reference source changes take place-; and exceptional revision- for instance, when an error appears in a published statistic-.

      Every two years, a new Household Projection will be disseminated, whose results cover the 15 following years. This entails the revision of the projections disseminated two years prior, as the latest available demographic information updates the behaviour and trends simulating the future demographic evolution.

  • 17.2. Data revision - practice

    • The final data of the sources used (see section 18.1) replaces the prior data, once disseminated.

      Likewise, each projection includes two periods of demographic information, with regard to the projection disseminated two years prior.

      Therefore, the results of each new projection completely update the results of the previous projections.

• 18. Statistical processing

  • 18.1. Source data

    • It is a synthesis statistical operation, compiled from results coming from different sources on the past and present demographic evolution. Specifically, the following are used:

      - The Population and Housing Censuses - Population Projections - Continuous Population Statistics

  • 18.2. Frequency of data collection

    • Biennial.

       

  • 18.3. Data collection

    • The Household Projection is a synthesis operation based on various sources of information. From the Continuous Population Statistics and the Population and Housing Censuses, the propensities of the population are determined according to their characteristics of sex, age, and province of residence, to live in a certain type of household as well as the average household size by province. These propensities and sizes are calculated at least in two different moments, which allows the extrapolation of their behaviour in the future. The projected propensities are applied to the projected population figures for the future, which are also compiled and disseminated by the INE, in such a way that it is possible to obtain a simulation of future households based on their recent behaviour.

  • 18.4. Data validation

    • Multiple analyses are carried out of the coherence of the evolution of the household figures and of the coherence of the figures with the available data from the different demographic statistical sources.

  • 18.5. Data compilation

    • A framework of persons according to province, sex, age and size of dwelling as well as a framework of dwelling according to size is compiled with base inthe Continuous Population Statistics , at 1 January of the year of compilation of the projection and at 1 January of the third previous year. During these two moments, the propensities that the population has of living in a certain type of household according to sex, age and province of residence as well as the evolution produced in them in these periods is calculated. By means of extrapolation, the propensities corresponding to each year of the projection are obtained, and applying the propensities obtained to the projected population figures for those same years, it is possible to calculate the total households by type, and by their addition the total number of households is obtained.

  • 18.6. Adjustment

    • The projection is carried out at province level and by aggregation it is possible to obtain the higher levels at national and Autonomous Community levels. No type of adjustment is made to the results obtained.

• 19. Comment

  • 19.1. Comment

    • .